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say the central bank likely to hold off until after the federal reserve is due to meet. joining us for more is global chief officer of global equities. and head of japanese research at jpmorgan securities. i suppose the question is whether this contraction here in the third quarter will be followed by another one in the fourth. >> it looks quite likely. you've got bad news on exports continuing and you've got on on top of that now a contraction in public spending beginning to come through. the boost we got after the weak construction from the disaster, that's now bapeaking out. so public demand and economic demand likely to drag us. >> and how much is domestic relying on government support? >> the domestic private side is actually doing really differencely okay. one data point here, you find that mortgage lending is actually growing now for six or seven consecutive months and that shows you that they're opening their purse spritrings little bit. but overall you're really looking at slight contraction in the economy. >> what extra pressure does this put on the government and the ban
waiting for the ifo sentiment index, see whether it confirms what the pmis have been telling us this week about the german economy. suggests we may be heading into possibly contraction territory. expecting it to be around 99.5 versus 100. expectations entex is frft at 93.2, unchanged from the previous reading. not out yet. kathleen brooks is with us. i'm not sure why we don't have it but anyway, whatever your expectations are for this, how close is germ 234i going to skirt with contraction in the fourth quarter? >> it certainly has been slowing down and it looks like there's the possibility that even germany is starting to have some mild contraction and maybe even in the technical recession i would think over the next two quarters. the economic indicators have been coming down in determine any, there had been an expectation that consumption kicks up more in the country. which it has a little bit, but a little less than maybe people have been expecting. obviously the fallout from the international crisis and the backdrop is not really helping. >>. >> euro-dollar edging up to a three week h
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